With the Lionel Messi-Cristiano Ronaldo duopoly now disappearing into the rearview mirror, the battle for the Ballon d'Or hasn't felt so open for the best part of 20 years, with countless players beginning the campaign believing they have a chance of claiming the most prestigious individual prize football has to offer. Ousmane Dembele emerged from a career plagued with inconsistencies to win the Golden Ball in 2025, and he was among a crowded field of contenders as the 2026 race got going.
Dembele largely secured the award off the back of his performances in helping Paris Saint-Germain win their first European Cup, and the Champions League is yet again likely to have a big say on the Ballon d'Or battle this time around. However, it's also a World Cup year, so there is a chance that the eventual winner doesn't emerge until the summer in North America.
Don't forget, too, that the Africa Cup of Nations is running from late December and into January, meaning there could be some players who don't only shine for their clubs but also impress at major tournaments over the course of the campaign.
The Ballon d'Or race is a marathon not a sprint, and it's worth bearing in mind that Dembele didn't emerge as a potential victor until midway through the 2024-25 campaign. However, with the European season reaching its halfway mark, GOAL's Ballon d'Or Power Rankings are well up and running as we track the likeliest winners of the Golden Ball over the coming weeks and months:
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10Achraf Hakimi (Paris Saint-Germain) ↔️
Widely regarded as the best right-back in the world, Hakimi placed sixth in the 2025 Ballon d'Or voting after a season in which he contributed as much to the PSG attack as he did to ensure they remained solid at the back. One of the leaders within Luis Enrique's squad, the Moroccan's performances will again have a large bearing on the French champions' fortunes at home and on the continent.
Hakimi had made a decent start to the season before suffering an ankle injury in late October, and what places him so high in our rankings is the potential for him to shine on the international stage. Morocco reached the semi-finals of the 2022 World Cup and have the strongest squad among the African qualifiers for 2026, meaning another deep run isn't beyond the realms of possibility. Before that, the Atlas Lions are the favourites to triumph on home soil at AFCON, with Hakimi – the newly-crowned African Footballer of the Year – set to be the face of the tournament if he can prove his fitness during the group stages.
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9Lionel Messi (Inter Miami) 🆕
He couldn't, could he?! The days of Lionel Messi even being nominated for the Ballon d'Or were thought to be behind us, but after guiding Inter Miami to their first-ever MLS Cup and with Argentina remaining among the favourites to win the World Cup, there is a real chance that the eight-time winner finds himself back in the running for the Golden Ball come the summer.
Messi proved to be a class apart on his way to winning a second-straight MLS MVP award as he provided six goals and seven assists in Miami's six play-off matches alone, and certainly that success at club level would be taken into account if he can help Argentina defend their global crown in North America in 2026. For all the talent around him, Messi remains at the heart of the Albiceleste's line up, and thus any triumph in his new homeland will likely be attributed largely to him once more.
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8Luis Diaz (Bayern Munich) ↔️
Liverpool fans might be forgiven for wondering whether their season might not be in such turmoil had Luis Diaz not been sold over the summer. The versatile forward played an important role in the Reds' title triumph of 2024-25, but his desire for a new challenge led to the Anfield outfit accepting a €75 million (£65.5m/$88m) bid from Bayern Munich for the Colombia international.
Diaz hasn't looked back since, having struck up a fine understanding with Harry Kane and the rest of his Bayern team-mates. Some of his strikes in the Bundesliga have been stunning, while his double to beat PSG in the Champions League was the kind of match-winning display that catches Ballon d'Or voters' eyes, even if his subsequent red card means he won't be seen again in the competition until January at the earliest.
Factor in Diaz will be playing at his first World Cup this summer, and he has all the makings of a Golden Ball contender.
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7Michael Olise (Bayern Munich) ↔️
Anyone who predicted that Michael Olise would struggle to make the step up from Crystal Palace to Bayern Munich has been sorely mistaken, with the wideman having strung together a year or so of fantastic performances for the Bundesliga champions. Equally capable of scoring as he is creating goals for others, the 24-year-old has grown into one of the most fearsome forward players in the German top flight while also making his mark on the Champions League.
Olise's club performances have also helped him lock down a starting spot in the France line-up despite intense competition for places. As such, he could be one of the stars of the upcoming World Cup for one of the favourites to lift the trophy.
